Climate-neutral gases are seen as a decisive factor for a flexible and sustainable energy system, especially for energy-intensive industries. At the same time, it is predicted that the demand for gas transportation services will fall significantly compared to current levels. Despite a predicted 15% drop in gas demand, 98% of the natural gas network is expected to remain in operation. The study aims to develop long-term strategies to maintain the gas network as a valuable asset. At the same time, well-founded assessments of the future market environment and possible transformation options are to be carried out.

The study followed a structured approach, starting with the creation of a scenario framework that captures the uncertainties and influences of the energy transition. Based on this, technical and economic grid conditions up to 2042 were defined and analyzed for various scenarios in order to assess the long-term sustainability of grid operation. A particular focus was placed on examining the burdens for grid customers and the risks of high grid fees. Finally, the results were compared in order to develop robust recommendations for future grid strategies.

The study provides valuable insights into the long-term development and sustainability of the gas grid and identifies conditions for its economic operation. With the help of a scenario framework, future prospects and risks were transparently assessed and strategies developed to avoid high grid fees. In addition, specific recommendations for the transformation of the gas grid were formulated, taking into account operational and regulatory aspects. The results not only support strategic planning at Avacon, but also provide decision-makers with a sound basis for designing a sustainable gas grid strategy. The study thus makes an important contribution to managing the energy transition and securing a future-proof infrastructure.