WestVerkehr GmbH intended to run part of its bus fleet on green hydrogen. Hydrogen buses have already been successfully ordered. WestVerkehr was in talks with potential hydrogen suppliers to operate the hydrogen buses and had already received offers for long-term hydrogen procurement. A hydrogen index was required to determine the long-term price development for hydrogen and the associated price glide. WestVerkehr wanted to use the HydexPLUS index developed by E-Bridge for this purpose and also to be able to better estimate H2 price trends with the help of forecasts.

E-Bridge developed a forecast for the development of H2 prices in Germany. To this end, we evaluated the business models of electrolysis companies and conducted a market review for investors. To this end, drivers of hydrogen costs were determined using the Hydex and HydexPLUS indices. We estimated the medium-term development of H2 production costs in order to assess competitiveness with rival products. Additional infrastructural factors and contribution margins for hydrogen pricing were also assessed.

The aim of the project was to determine the break-even costs for H2 mobility operation in comparison with conventional operation. In particular, the dependence of the H2 price on cost-optimised electricity procurement was worked out. In addition, the subsidy regime in the mobility sector was taken into account in order to derive the possible supply cost level. This provided the customer with recommendations for action for cost-efficient hydrogen procurement.