Currently, uncertainties (regulatory framework, gas and H2 demand development, technological developments, developments of adjacent gas grid operators, sector coupling) complicate the identification of a long-term roadmap for gas grid operators into a climate neutral world. Therefore, the aim of the study is to identify measures for the conversion of the gas grid of Ferngas into a climate-neutral world by 2045. For this purpose, target grid plans for 2045 – especially in the hydrogen sector – are developed for different scenarios and based on this, an investment roadmap for concrete measures for the period 2027-2035 including cost estimation is derived.
First, three consistent scenarios are determined. These take into account regulatory, technical and political developments. The influence of the current Russia-Ukraine war is also mapped in one scenario. Within the scenarios, different consumption sectors are broken down, the heating market is analyzed in detail, and developments in the industrial sector are highlighted. Subsequently, the scenarios are regionalized and compared with data of Ferngas in order to make final adjustments.
Based on the start network of Ferngas, a concrete target network planning for the gas and H2 sector in 2045 is developed for each scenario. For this purpose, regional supply strategies (blending, full switch to H2, no gas supply in the long term, …) are derived and the technical feasibility is checked.
To determine concrete investment measures until 2035, a scenario overarching robust set of investments is identified. For this purpose, individual measures are evaluated together with Ferngas from a technical and regulatory perspective (including technical design, hydr. Load flow calculation, P&L, balance sheet, cash flow). Additionally, the central pro and con arguments of the measures are summarized.
At the end of the project, the strategic implications for Ferngas are also examined and condensed in order to provide a strategic orientation of Ferngas. In this context, both organizational and operational aspects such as a possible bottlenecks in service providers or specialists in the future as well as a strategy for the network planning processes in subsequent years will be examined.
The three scenarios for the gas and H2 sector are mapped to the entry and exit points. This provides the basis for the target network planning for different scenarios until 2045 . Hence, Ferngas obtains an estimation of possible future developments and their range which enables Ferngas to understand the implications of global developments on the shape of their own network in the future and the corresponding investment needs.
The derived robust set of investment measures until 2035 – including a detailed technical-regulatory assessment – shapes an investment roadmap which extends the actual medium-term planning. Furthermore, the analyzed strategic implications contribute to successfully head into the sustainable energy system of the future due to an improved assessment of the opportunities and risks of the transformation process.